Thursday, 10 March 2011

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I thought that after qld flooded there might be some deals up there but maybe not so easy.

Comments from Judith Taylor of Property Women, Newcastle

From the perspective of Newcastle’s 2 disasters, being the earthquake in 1989 and the Pasha Bulka floods in 2007, once the dust settled, the economy was certainly boosted, properties were upgraded and improved and values went up considerably.  The June 2007 floods claimed 11 lives and forced the evacuation of thousands due to flood damage.  Many tenants had to vacate properties they were renting and many homeowners whose properties were made uninhabitable also had to seek alternative accommodation.  Rental properties were at a premium and many moved in with family and friends because there were no rentals available.  In some cases homes were uninhabitable for 18 months while the owners waited in line for builders.  Others found that their insurance did not cover them for flood, leaving them to undertake their own repairs or sell the property due to loss of rental income.  Some of the areas affected had been largely inhabited by elderly home owners, many of whom moved straight into aged care, with their houses going on the market in “as is condition”.   I was poised and ready to find myself a bargain, however the bargains I thought I’d find didn’t happen.  The “as is” properties sold for much more than I considered them to be worth under the circumstances.  In the scheme of things, it didn’t take long for people to forget that these houses had been 2.5metres under water and they began paying much higher prices for them, once they were repaired and renovated because they not only looked  “nice” but were in central location.  These suburbs have continued to thrive in both capital growth and rental return. For more information on Property Women click here.

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The future of Brisbane Property values.

Probably a reflection of the past. A ‘gun-shy’ period where everyone’s ‘flood radar’ is up. A drop in value of the affected properties (not necessarily the whole suburb).

It does depend if we get another event within a few years... that would really scare the pigeons!

I think the shortage of suitable property may wipe out the vacancy factors in the short term. Many people are staying with friends, family or emergency accommodation and they will tire of that within months. I can’t see tenants rushing back into an area that has flooded and wiped out their belongings.

Fully furnished property may be in demand for a period until people get back on their feet.

Building costs about to soar as the emerging energy industry grabs the few tradies available who are not fixing up houses. Remember there is flooding over a lot of Qld towns and other states as well, so where are these tradies going to come from?

I would think as long as this event is not repeated in the short term there is a chance that well located and flood free property will maintain or increase it’s value, especially as I think there has to be a major increase in overseas migration to handle the impending explosion in multi-billion dollar energy projects.

I would think an increase in demand for property in the next few years is near as guaranteed. Availability of finance is a whole different question and will have an effect on what is actually built.

All in all the great flood of 2011 is just a blip on the radar of the long term investor with well researched property but a massive blow to the flood affected home owner or investor who either by lack of research or a wish to defy the odds with a gamble on the weather bought property in these areas and are paying the price.

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